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News & Views, September 2016 Issue |
September 2016

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The Conference Board index of leading indicators climbed 0.4% in July, slightly above expectations. The increase was led by industrial production. Nonfarm payrolls added 255,000 jobs in July, which is higher than the average monthly addition of 175,000 jobs in the first half of the year. Job creation maintained the unemployment rate at 4.9%. This indicates that the U.S. economy’s near-term expansion will be slightly more robust than initially anticipated.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 7/31/16; YTD Return S&P 500; 2,174; 6.30% Dow Jones Industrials; 18,432; 5.80% NASDAQ Composite; 5,162; 3.10% Shanghai Composite (China); 2,738; −22.60% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 24,871; −4.80% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 17,518; −8.00% CAC 40 (France); 4,417; −4.70% DAX (Germany); 9,798; −8.80% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 6,084; −2.50%
Selected Interest Rates; 7/31/16; 6/30/16 15-Year Mortgage; 2.78%; 2.78% 30-Year Mortgage; 3.48%; 3.48% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.03%; 1.01% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 1.46%; 1.49% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.18%; 2.30%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month National Producer Price Index; −0.40%; 0.50% Consumer Price Index; 0.00%; 0.20% Unemployment Rate; 4.90%; 4.90% ISM Manufacturing Index; 52.60; 53.20 ISM Services Index; 55.50; 56.50 Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 255,000; 287,000 New York State Consumer Price Index–NY, NJ, CT; −0.10%; 0.30% Unemployment Rate; 4.70%; 4.70% NYS Index of Coincident indicators; 5.70%; 1.30%

Construction Spending

Construction spending dropped 0.6% in June, against expectations of a 0.5% gain, making this the third consecutive monthly drop. In private residential construction, spending on multifamily units was up 16.4% from a year earlier, compared to 4.8% for single-family units. The low rental vacancy rates and a shift to renting over buying support the strength in the multifamily category. On the nonresidential side, manufacturing was down 4.5% during the month and 10.4% year over year, hurt by the rising dollar.

Forté Capital
Equity Market Statistics; 7/31/16; 6/30/16 Dow Jones Industrials Dividend Yield; 2.61%; 2.68% Price/Earnings Ratio (12 Mth Trailing); 18.95; 18.41 Price to Book; 3.15; 3.04 S&P 500 Index Earnings Yield; 4.52%; 4.70% Dividend Yield; 2.10%; 2.11% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 22.11; 21.28 Price/Earnings (2016 EPS Est); 19.62; 18.43

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecaptial.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100.

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