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News & Views, October 2016 Issue |
October 2016

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N.Y. Empire State Manufacturing

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business conditions index remained below its neutral threshold for a second consecutive month, coming in at −2.0. Looking deeper into the numbers, new orders fell from 1 to −7.5, the worst result in six months, and shipments fell from 9 to −9.4, the steepest decline in five years. Employment indicators were also weak, as that index fell from −1 to −14.3, its lowest reading of the year and largest decline since 2012. Much of the weakness can be traced to softness outside of New York City, where Albany and Rochester are both at risk of falling into a recession. One silver lining in the survey is that expectations remain strong. The forward-looking business conditions reversed after a mild summer slump to reach its best reading in a year, with the future number of employees index perhaps the most encouraging measure.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 8/31/16; YTD Return S & P 500; 2,171; 6.20% Dow Jones Industrials; 18,401; 5.60% NASDAQ Composite; 5,213; 4.10% Shanghai Composite (China); 3,085; −12.80% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 28,452; 8.90% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 16,887; −11.30% CAC 40 (France); 4,438; −4.30% DAX (Germany); 10,593; −1.40% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 6,782; 8.60%
Selected Interest Rates; 8/31/16; 7/31/16 15-Year Mortgage; 2.74%; 2.78% 30-Year Mortgage; 3.43%; 3.48% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.19%; 1.03% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 1.58%; 1.46% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.23%; 2.18%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month National Producer Price Index; 0.00%; −0.40% Consumer Price Index; 0.20%; 0.00% Unemployment Rate; 4.90%; 4.90% ISM Manufacturing Index; 49.40; 52.60 ISM Services Index; 51.40; 55.50 Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 151,000; 255,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; na; −0.10% Unemployment Rate; 4.80%; 4.70% NYS Index of Coincident Indicators; 5.50%; 5.70%

Oil Inventories

Crude oil inventories dropped by an unexpected 6.2 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 16, as compared to analysts’ predictions of a 3.4 million barrel increase. The fall came despite upward pressure from multiple accounts. Imports rose by 247,000 barrels per day (bpd), refinery demand dropped by 143,000 bpd, and domestic production was higher by 19,000 bpd. Inventories are 11.2% higher than they were a year ago. The rise in domestic production was an important aspect of the report, as U.S. production seems to be turning around after bottoming in July. The return of shale drillers is the most significant risk to the oil price outlook.

Equity Market Statistics; 7/31/16; 7/31/16 Dow Jones Industrials Dividend Yield; 2.61%; 2.61% Price-to-Earnings Ratio (12 Mth Trailing); 19.58; 18.95 Price-to-Book Value; 3.15; 3.15 S&P 500 Index Earnings Yield; 4.52%; 4.52% Dividend Yield; 2.14%; 2.10% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 22.11; 22.11 Price/Earnings (2016 EPS Est); 19.68; 19.62

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecaptial.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100.

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