Existing Home Sales

Annualized, seasonally adjusted existing home sales were 5.47 million in September, well above the forecast of 5.31 million. Thanks to increased single-family demand, home sales increased in all four Census regions, with the Northeast increasing 5.7%, the Midwest 3.9%, the South 0.9%, and the West 5%. The single-family housing market remains tight at 1.8 million listings, down 7.2% from September 2015, and the inventory-to-sales ratio fell from 4.6 to 4.4 months. On the other hand, the condo/co-op market saw an uptick in available inventory, rising by 3.9% from August, while seeing a 3.2% decline in sales. Interestingly, the share of first time home buyers increased to 34%, the highest level in four years. The median single-family home price was $235,720, up 2.3% from August, and the price for condos/co-ops was $221,850, up by 2.6%.

 U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 9/30/16; YTD Return S&P 500; 2,168; 6.10% Dow Jones Industrials; 18,308; 5.10% Nasdaq Composite; 5,312; 6.10% Shanghai Composite (China); 2,738; −22.60% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 24,871; −4.80% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 17,518; −8.00% CAC 40 (France); 4,417; −4.70% DAX (Germany); 9,798; −8.80% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 6,084; −2.50%
 Selected Interest Rates; 9/30/16; 8/31/16 15-Year Mortgage; 2.72%; 2.74% 30-Year Mortgage; 3.42%; 3.43% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.14%; 1.19% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 1.60%; 1.58% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.32%; 2.23%
 Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month National Producer Price Index; 0.30%; 0.00% Consumer Price Index; 0.30%; 0.20% Unemployment Rate; 5.00%; 4.90% ISM Manufacturing Index; 51.50; 49.40 ISM Services Index; 57.10; 51.40 Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 156,000; 151,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.20%; 0.20% Unemployment Rate; 5.00%; 4.80% NYS Index of Coincident Indicators; 4.40%; 5.50%

Durable Goods (Advance)

New orders for durable goods were unchanged in August, better than the consensus expectation of a 1.5% drop. July numbers were also revised downward, from the initial report of a 4.4% increase to a 3.6% increase. Excluding transportation, which historically is very volatile, new orders fell 0.4%. The most troubling aspect of the report is the decline in shipments of capital equipment, which indicates that the current weakness in manufacturing will linger. Stabilizing equipment purchases are good for growth in coming years, but companies have not been able to recapture the pace of investments that they made a few years ago.

 Forté Capital
 Equity Market Statistics; 9/30/16; 8/31/16 Dow Jones Industrials Dividend Yield; 2.63%; 2.61% Price-to-Earnings Ratio (12 Mth Trailing); 19.29; 19.58 Price-to-Book Value; 3.10; 3.15 S&P 500 Index Earnings Yield; 4.53%; 4.52% Dividend Yield; 2.14%; 2.14% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 22.09; 22.11 Price/Earnings (2016 EPS Est); 19.68; 19.68

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecaptial.com, send a message to [email protected], or call 866-586-8100.

 

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