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Feature Articles, March 2018 Issue |
April 2018

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Treasury Yield Curve

Markets are looking to new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for signals about the direction of interest rates. Expectations for three more rate hikes in 2018 remain the norm, taking short-term rates from 1.49% to approximately 2.25% by the end of the year. This will flatten the curve unless inflation lifts longer-term rates.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 2/27/18; YTD Return S&P 500; 2,779; 4.00% Dow Jones Industrials; 25,709; 4.00% Nasdaq Composite; 7,421; 7.50% Shanghai Composite (China); 3,292; −5.46% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 34,346; 0.85% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 22,389; −1.65% CAC 40 (France); 5,343; 0.59% DAX (Germany); 12,490; −3.30% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,282; −5.27%
Selected Interest Rates; 2/27/18; 1/28/18 15-Year Mortgage; 3.85%; 3.62% 30-Year Mortgage; 4.40%; 4.15% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 2.67%; 2.47% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 2.90%; 2.66% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 3.17%; 2.91%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent Prior Month National Producer Price Index; 0.40%; −0.10% Consumer Price Index; 0.50%; 0.10% Unemployment Rate; 4.10%; 4.10% ISM Manufacturing Index; 59.10; 59.70 ISM Services Index; 59.90; 55.90 Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 200,000; 148,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.40%; 0.10% Unemployment Rate; 4.60%; 4.60% NYS Index of Coincident Indicators; 0.90%; 0.80%

CPI—Annualized Monthly Reports

Once again, gains in energy prices drove the recent increase in U.S. inflation, aided by broad increases elsewhere. With labor markets tightening and tax cuts adding potential fuel to consumer spending, markets are getting more nervous about higher inflation trends.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month Dow Jones Industrials; 2/27/18; 1/28/18 Dividend Yield; 1.75%; 2.17% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 27.53; 21.78 Price/Earnings (Projected); 20.72; 19.74 S&P 500 Index; 2/27/18; 1/28/18 Dividend Yield; 1.78%; 1.87% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 23.53; 23.53 Price/Earnings (Projected); 18.41; 20.49

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecaptial.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.

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