Quarterly U.S. GDP Growth

First quarter GDP growth was 2.63%, the lowest in four quarters; however, the expectations for the current quarter range from 3% to over 5% as the economy rebounds and reacts to the federal tax cuts, especially on business income.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 6/28/18; YTD Return
S&P
 500; 2,699; 1.00%
Dow
 Jones Industrials; 24,117; −2.60%
Nasdaq
 Composite; 7,445; 7.80%
Shanghai
 Composite (China); 2,813; −14.90%
S&P
 BSE Sensex (India); 35,217; 3.40%
Nikkei
 Stock Avg (Japan); 22,271; −2.20%
CAC
 40 (France); 5,246; 0.30%
DAX
 (Germany); 12,348; −4.40%
FTSE
 100 (U.K.); 7,621; −0.90%
Selected Interest Rates; 6/28/18; 5/27/18
15-Year
 Mortgage; 4.04%; 4.15%
30-Year
 Mortgage; 4.55%; 4.66%
5-Year
 Treasury Bond; 2.71%; 2.58%
10-Year
 Treasury Bond; 2.83%; 2.77%
30-Year
 Treasury Bond; 2.97%; 2.96%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
National
Producer

 Price Index; 0.50%; 0.10%
Consumer
 Price Index; 0.20%; 0.20%
Unemployment
 Rate; 3.90%; 3.90%
ISM
 Manufacturing Index; 58.70; 57.30
ISM
 Services Index; 58.60; 56.80
Change
 in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 223,000; 164,000
New
 York State
Consumer
 Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.40%; 0.30%
Unemployment
 Rate; 4.50%; 4.60%
NYS
 Index of Coincident Indicators; 2.30%; 3.20%

Treasury Yield Curve

As the Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates, the yield curve has flattened. That is, long-term interest rates have remained virtually unchanged, while short-term rates have risen to almost 2% at 90 days out. This should persist so long as inflation remains muted.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Dow
 Jones Industrials; 6/28/18; 5/27/18
Dividend
 Yield; 2.30%; 2.30%
Price/Earnings
 (12 Mth Trailing); 23.63; 23.87
Price/Earnings
 (Projected); 16.22; 16.16
S&P
 500 Index; 6/28/18; 5/27/18
Dividend
 Yield; 1.96%; 1.97%
Price/Earnings
 (12 Mth Trailing); 24.33; 24.33
Price/Earnings
 (Projected); 16.47; 16.47

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to [email protected], or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.