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July 2018 Issue |
August 2018

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Quarterly U.S. GDP Growth

First quarter GDP growth was 2.63%, the lowest in four quarters; however, the expectations for the current quarter range from 3% to over 5% as the economy rebounds and reacts to the federal tax cuts, especially on business income.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 6/28/18; YTD Return S&P 500; 2,699; 1.00% Dow Jones Industrials; 24,117; −2.60% Nasdaq Composite; 7,445; 7.80% Shanghai Composite (China); 2,813; −14.90% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 35,217; 3.40% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 22,271; −2.20% CAC 40 (France); 5,246; 0.30% DAX (Germany); 12,348; −4.40% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,621; −0.90%
Selected Interest Rates; 6/28/18; 5/27/18 15-Year Mortgage; 4.04%; 4.15% 30-Year Mortgage; 4.55%; 4.66% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 2.71%; 2.58% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 2.83%; 2.77% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.97%; 2.96%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month National Producer Price Index; 0.50%; 0.10% Consumer Price Index; 0.20%; 0.20% Unemployment Rate; 3.90%; 3.90% ISM Manufacturing Index; 58.70; 57.30 ISM Services Index; 58.60; 56.80 Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 223,000; 164,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.40%; 0.30% Unemployment Rate; 4.50%; 4.60% NYS Index of Coincident Indicators; 2.30%; 3.20%

Treasury Yield Curve

As the Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates, the yield curve has flattened. That is, long-term interest rates have remained virtually unchanged, while short-term rates have risen to almost 2% at 90 days out. This should persist so long as inflation remains muted.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month Dow Jones Industrials; 6/28/18; 5/27/18 Dividend Yield; 2.30%; 2.30% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 23.63; 23.87 Price/Earnings (Projected); 16.22; 16.16 S&P 500 Index; 6/28/18; 5/27/18 Dividend Yield; 1.96%; 1.97% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 24.33; 24.33 Price/Earnings (Projected); 16.47; 16.47

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.

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