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September 2018 Issue |
October 2018

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Quarterly U.S. GDP Growth

Providing a counterpoint to the ISM data, second-quarter U.S. GDP was revised up from 4.1% to 4.2%, which was slightly better than expected. This represents the strongest growth since the third quarter of 2014. With the near-term effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act waning, we expect somewhat lower data for Q3 and Q4.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 8/28/18; YTD Return S&P 500; 2,897; 8.40% Dow Jones Industrials; 26,064; 5.40% Nasdaq Composite; 8,030; 16.30% Shanghai Composite (China); 2,778; −16.00% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 38,896; 14.20% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 22,813; 0.20% CAC 40 (France); 5,484; 3.20% DAX (Germany); 12,527; −3.00% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,617; -0.90%
Selected Interest Rates; 8/28/18; 7/28/18 15-Year Mortgage; 3.98%; 4.02% 30-Year Mortgage; 4.51%; 4.54% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 2.77%; 2.84% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 2.88%; 2.96% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 3.03%; 3.09%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month National Producer Price Index; 0.00%; 0.30% Consumer Price Index; 0.20%; 0.10% Unemployment Rate; 3.90%; 4.00% ISM Manufacturing Index; 58.10; 60.20 ISM Services Index; 55.70; 59.10 Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 157,000; 213,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.00%; 0.10% Unemployment Rate; 4.30%; 4.50% NYS Index of Coincident Indicators; 6.40%; 6.40%

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The trajectory of industrial production takes on more importance given the sometimes acrimonious public negotiations on trade. After the two-point decline in July, the ISM index could be marking a turn in the stronger industrial sector momentum that began earlier this year.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month Dow Jones Industrials; 8/28/18; 7/28/18 Dividend Yield; 2.26%; 2.34% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 22.23; 22.93 Price/Earnings (Projected); 14.41; 15.84 S&P 500 Index; 8/28/18; 7/28/18 Dividend Yield; 1.94%; 1.98% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 22.88; 22.88 Price/Earnings (Projected); 16.84; 16.35

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.

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