Quarterly Real U.S. GDP Growth
The U.S. economy is coming off of its tax cut–induced bump. Estimates of 2019 GDP are coming down, as indicated in the chart above. U.S. steady-state growth should settle in at about 2.5% next year. Headwinds include weakening global growth, rising interest rates, and reduced liquidity via Federal Reserve policy.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
The industrial side of the economy continues to show robust growth, albeit slower than seen in the summer. According to the Institute of Supply Management, the “impact of the trade tension hasn’t been a significant weight—yet.”
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