U.S. Wages and Salaries Growth

Wages grew by 4.16% during January 2019 versus the same period in 2018. According to Trading Economics, this is below the long-term average (1960–2019) of 6.20%, but significantly higher than levels reached during the Great Recession, when wages fell by as much as 5.88% in March 2009. The current level reflects moderate strength in the labor market.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 3/26/19; YTD Return
S&P 500; 2,798; 11.60%
Dow Jones Industrials; 25,516; 9.10%
Nasdaq Composite; 7,637; 15.10%
Shanghai Composite (China); 3,043; 22.00%
S&P BSE Sensex (India); 37,808; 4.80%
Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 20,977; 4.80%
CAC 40 (France); 5,260; 11.20%
DAX (Germany); 11,346; 7.50%
FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,177; 6.70%
Selected Interest Rates; 3/26/19; 2/26/19
15-Year Mortgage; 3.71%; 3.81%
30-Year Mortgage; 4.28%; 4.37%
5-Year Treasury Bond; 2.21%; 2.48%
10-Year Treasury Bond; 2.43%; 2.67%
30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.87%; 3.03%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
National
Producer Price Index; 0.10%; -0.10%
Consumer Price Index; 0.20%; -0.00%
Unemployment Rate; 3.80%; 4.00%
ISM Manufacturing Index; 54.20 56.60
ISM Services Index; 59.70; 56.70
Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 20,000; 304,000
New York State
Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.20%; 0.50%
Unemployment Rate; 3.90%; 3.90%
NYS Index of Coincident Indicators; 5.80%; 5.80%

Non-Farm Payroll

After exceptionally strong January reports (gains of 311,000 new jobs), nonfarm payroll weakened considerably, to a gain of only 20,000 jobs. This represents the lowest increase since February 2017. Construction employment contracted, but there were gains in professional and business services, wholesale trade, and healthcare.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Dow Jones Industrials; 3/26/19; 2/26/19
Dividend Yield; 2.32%; 2.37%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 17.70; 17.66
Price/Earnings (Projected); 15.77; 15.45
S&P 500 Index; 3/26/19; 2/26/19
Dividend Yield; 2.03%; 2.23%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 22.35; 22.35
Price/Earnings (Projected); 16.77; 15.55

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to [email protected], or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.