Quarterly Real U.S. GDP Growth

First quarter Gross Domestic Product, released on April 26, rose 3.2% versus estimates that averaged approximately 2.5%. The higher-than-expected increase was fueled by increases in consumer spending, inventory builds, export activity, and government spending. Housing was a negative influence, as were imports.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 4/26/19; YTD Return
S&P 500; 2,926; 16.70%
Dow Jones Industrials; 26,462; 13.40%
Nasdaq Composite; 8,118; 22.40%
Shanghai Composite (China); 3,123; 25.30%
S&P BSE Sensex (India); 38,730; 7.40%
Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 22,307; 11.50%
CAC 40 (France); 5,557; 17.50%
DAX (Germany); 12,282; 16.30%
FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,434; 10.50%
Selected Interest Rates; 4/26/19; 3/26/19
15-Year Mortgage; 3.64%; 3.71%
30-Year Mortgage; 4.20%; 4.28%
5-Year Treasury Bond; 2.33%; 2.21%
10-Year Treasury Bond; 2.54%; 2.43%
30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.94%; 2.87%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
National
Producer Price Index; 0.60%; 0.10%
Consumer Price Index; 0.40%; 0.20%
Unemployment Rate 3.80%; 3.80%
ISM Manufacturing Index; 55.30; 54.20
ISM Services Index; 56.10; 59.70
Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 196,000; 20,000
New York State
Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.30%; 0.20%
Unemployment Rate; 4.00%; 3.90%
Empire State Manufacturing Survey; 10.10%; 4.10%

Year-over-Year Change in CPI

The U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, rose 1.9% in March 2019. This marks a turn from a downtrend that began in July 2018 and was slightly above the consensus level of 1.8%. Taking out volatile components such as food and energy, core inflation came in at 2%, slightly below estimates of 2.1%. Fed policy remains at a 2% target.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Dow Jones Industrials; 4/26/19; 3/26/19
Dividend Yield; 2.32%; 2.32%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 17.51; 17.70
Price/Earnings (Projected); 15.77; 15.77
S&P 500 Index; 4/26/19; 3/26/19
Dividend Yield; 2.00%; 2.03%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 18.94; 22.35
Price/Earnings (Projected); 16.58; 16.77

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to [email protected], or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.