Quarterly Real U.S. GDP Growth

Estimates for 2019 gross domestic product are coming down; while the first quarter ended with a 3.1% growth rate, evidence from the manufacturing sector and inventory data suggest that the second quarter’s will only be around 1.5%. As a result, the Federal Reserve has indicated there will be no more rate increases this year, and there may be rate cuts before year-end.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 6/28/19; YTD Return S&P 500; 2,932; 16.97% Dow Jones Industrials; 26,567; 13.89% Nasdaq Composite; 7,984; 20.33% Shanghai Composite (China); 3,008; 20.60% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 39,122; 8.50% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 21,285; 6.40% CAC 40 (France); 5,521; 16.70% DAX (Germany); 12,274; 16.20% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,416; 10.20%
Selected Interest Rates; 6/28/19; 5/28/19 15-Year Mortgage; 3.16%; 3.51% 30-Year Mortgage; 3.73%; 4.06% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.76%; 2.12% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 2.01%; 2.32% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.52%; 2.75%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month National Producer Price Index; 0.10%; 0.20% Consumer Price Index; 0.10%; 0.30% Unemployment Rate; 3.60%; 3.60% ISM Manufacturing Index; 52.10; 52.80 ISM Services Index; 56.90; 55.50 Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 75,000; 263,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.20%; 0.30% Unemployment Rate; 4.00%; 3.90% Empire State Manufacturing Survey -8.60%; 17.80%

Treasury Yield Curve

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, describing the interest rate term structure, shows the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes at the short end, declining expectations for economic growth in the near term, and only moderate inflation risks in the longer term. Forté Capital does not hold the view that the inversion from overnight to three years indicates an imminent recession.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month Dow Jones Industrials; 6/28/19; 5/28/19 Dividend Yield; 2.55%; 2.34% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 16.56; 17.86 Price/Earnings (Projected); 15.52; 16.52 S&P 500 Index; 6/28/19; 5/28/19 Dividend Yield; 2.10%; 1.95% Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 18.94; 18.94 Price/Earnings (Projected); 16.20; 17.27

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to [email protected], or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.