ISM Manufacturing Index

The latest ISM data point confirms a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. While GDP grew by 2.1% in the third quarter, manufacturing entered a period of modest contraction. While the sector is not yet in recessionary territory, it has been impacted by trade discussions with China and the on-again/off-again nature of the very public negotiations.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 11/26/19; YTD Return
S&P 500; 3,144; 25.44%
Dow Jones Industrials; 28,095; 20.44%
Nasdaq Composite; 8,677; 30.78%
Shanghai Composite (China); 2,903; 16.41%
S&P BSE Sensex (India); 41,020; 13.73%
Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 23,437; 17.10%
CAC 40 (France); 5,929; 25.34%
DAX (Germany); 13,236; 26.36%
FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,403; 10.03%
Selected Interest Rates; 11/26/19; 10/29/19
15-Year Mortgage; 3.15%; 3.18%
30-Year Mortgage; 3.68%; 3.75%
5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.58%; 1.66%
10-Year Treasury Bond; 1.74%; 1.84%
30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.18%; 2.33%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Producer Price Index; 0.40%; −0.30%
Consumer Price Index; 0.40%; 0.00%
Unemployment Rate; 3.60%; 3.50%
ISM Manufacturing Index; 48.10; 48.30
ISM Services Index; 54.70; 52.60
Change in Non-farm Payroll Emp.; 128,000; 136,000
New York State
Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.00%; 0.00%
Unemployment Rate; 4.00%; 3.90%
Empire State Manufacturing Survey; 2.90%; 4.00%

Quarterly Real U.S. GDP Growth

U.S. GDP grew at 2.1% in the third quarter, assisted by consumer and government spending. Home construction also contributed for the first time in seven quarters. Business investment, however, was weak amid concerns of a slow global economy and the effects of the US/China trade dispute.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Dow Jones Industrials; 11/26/19; 10/29/19
Dividend Yield; 2.44%; 2.44%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 18.69; 18.69
Price/Earnings (Projected); 17.89; 17.89
S&P 500 Index; 11/26/19; 10/29/19
Dividend Yield; 1.99%; 1.99%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 21.75; 21.75
Price/Earnings (Projected); 17.07; 17.07

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit, send a message to, or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.