Industrial Production Index

Industrial production improved in the latest report, due largely to better output of automobiles and parts following the settlement of the GM strike. Taking out automobiles and parts, the data showed a 0.5% increase. This should begin to show up in the ISM manufacturing sector data for new orders, which weakened in late 2019.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 1/2/20; YTD Return
S&P 500; 3,244; 28.16%
Dow Jones Industrials; 28,708; 22.51%
Nasdaq Composite; 9,058; 34.41%
Shanghai Composite (China); 3,083; 22.62%
S&P BSE Sensex (India); 41,464; 16.16%
Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 23,656; 18.20%
CAC 40 (France); 6,0449; 31.07%
DAX (Germany); 13,219; 26.90%
FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,622; 13.89%
Selected Interest Rates; 1/2/20; 10/29/19
15-Year Mortgage; 3.16%; 3.15%
30-Year Mortgage; 3.72%; 3.68%
5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.67%; 1.58%
10-Year Treasury Bond; 1.88%; 1.74%
30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.33%; 2.18%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
National
Producer Price Index; 0.00%; 0.40%
Consumer Price Index; 0.30%; 0.40%
Unemployment Rate; 3.50%; 3.60%
ISM Manufacturing Index; 47.20; 48.10
ISM Services Index; 53.90; 54.70
Change in Non-farm Payroll Emp.; 266,000; 128,000
New York State
Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.10%; 0.00%
Unemployment Rate; 4.00%; 4.00%
Empire State Manufacturing Survey; 3.50%; 2.90%

Effective Fed Funds Rate

The chart above illustrates the about-face at the Federal Reserve, which began to lower rates in 2019 in response to weakening industrial activity and GDP growth, as well as concerns over global trade, particularly with regard to China, as well as the EU block and Brexit.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Dow Jones Industrials; 1/2/20; 10/29/19
Dividend Yield; 2.31%; 2.44%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 20.53; 18.69
Price/Earnings (Projected); 19.31; 17.89
S&P 500 Index; 1/2/20; 10/29/19
Dividend Yield; 1.90%; 1.99%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 21.75; 21.75
Price/Earnings (Projected); 18.39; 17.07

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to [email protected], or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.