U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

The U.S. Treasury yield curve is inverted from 30 days to 3 years, reflecting the fear of an economic slowdown due to the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus, which has dominated the news. There is also a growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in order to calm the markets and support GDP growth and liquidity.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 2/28/20; YTD Return
S&P 500; 2,978; -7.80%
Dow Jones Industrials; 25,766; -9.71%
Nasdaq Composite; 8,566; -4.53%
Shanghai Composite (China); 2,880; -5.57%
S&P BSE Sensex (India); 38,297; -7.17%
Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 21,142; -10.63%
CAC 40 (France); 5,275; -11.78%
DAX (Germany); 11,781; -11.07%
FTSE 100 (U.K.); 6,515; -13.53%
Selected Interest Rates; 2/28/20; 1/2/20
15-Year Mortgage; 2.95%; 3.00%
30-Year Mortgage; 3.45%; 3.51%
5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.11%; 1.32%
10-Year Treasury Bond; 1.30%; 1.51%
30-Year Treasury Bond; 1.79%; 1.99%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Proir Month
National
Producer Price Index; 0.50%; 0.10%
Consumer Price Index; 0.10%; 0.20%
Unemployment Rate; 3.50%; 3.50%
ISM Manufacturing Index; 50.90; 50.90
ISM Services Index; 55.00; 55.00
Change in Non-farm Payroll Emp.; 255,000; 145,000
New York State
Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.80%; 0.10%
Unemployment Rate; 4.00%; 4.00%
Empire State Manufacturing Survey; 12.90%; 4.80%

ISM Manufacturing Index

The January reading on manufacturing was higher than expected and showed an upturn in the sector. Due to the lagged nature of this survey data, however, it reflects little or no impact from supply chain disruptions in China and slowing demand due to the effects of the Covid-19 coronavirus. The impact of these issues on this manufacturing data should be evident in the coming months.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Dow Jones Industrials; 2/28/20; 1/2/20
Dividend Yield; 2.34%; 2.31%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 20.23; 20.53
Price/Earnings (Projected); 18.82; 19.31
S&P 500 Index; 2/28/20; 1/2/20
Dividend Yield; 1.88%; 1.86%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 22.40; 22.40
Price/Earnings (Projected); 18.53; 19.94

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to [email protected], or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.