ISM Manufacturing Index

After a strong rebound in the second quarter, the momentum in the industrial sector is showing signs of slowing. While still in growth mode, the recent ISM Index fell slightly, to 55.4%. This may be setting the pace for economic growth trends for the rest of the year and into 2021. While the industrial sector is only 10% of GDP, it is a reasonable proxy for overall demand.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 10/26/20; YTD Return S&P 500; 3,401; 5.49% Dow Jones Industrials; 27,655; -3.09% Nasdaq Composite; 11,406; 27.13% Shanghai Composite (China); 3,254; 6.69% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 40,522; -1.77% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 23,485; -0.72% CAC 40 (France); 4,761; -20.36% DAX (Germany); 12,118; -8.09% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 5,770; -23.18%
Selected Interest Rates; 10/26/20; 9/1/20 15-Year Mortgage; 2.33%; 2.461% 30-Year Mortgage; 2.80%; 2.91% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 0.35%; 0.26% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 0.81%; 0.68% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 1.59%; 1.43%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month National Producer Price Index; 0.40%; 0.30% Consumer Price Index; 0.20%; 0.40% Unemployment Rate; 7.90%; 8.40% ISM Manufacturing Index; 55.40; 56.00 ISM Services Index; 57.80; 56.90 Change in Non-farm Payroll Emp.; 661,000; 1,371,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.40%; -0.10% Unemployment Rate; 9.70%; 12.50% Empire State Manufacturing Survey; 10.50%; 17.00%

Initial Unemployment Claims, 4-Week Moving Average

Unemployment trends continue to improve. The overall unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in the most recent survey, while the 4-week average of unemployment insurance claims fell to 811,250 new filings. This remains far above the levels of 2019 and early 2020. Given continuing COVID-19-related constraints, the unemployment level is expected to be well above normal into 2021.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month Dow Jones Industrials; 10/26/20; 9/1/20 Dividend Yield; 2.37%; 2.313% Price/Earnings (12-Mth Trailing); 26.58; 27.28 Price/Earnings (Projected); 24.15; 25.01 S&P 500 Index; 10/26/20; 9/1/20 Dividend Yield; 1.70%; 1.62% Price/Earnings (12-Mth Trailing); 31.24; 22.22 Price/Earnings (Projected); 21.75; 24.29

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