Forté Capital’s Selected Statistics

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

One of the driving factors in both the economic picture and the capital markets is the expectation of rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve has now confirmed that it will begin raising rates in March 2022, and it will at the same time conclude its asset purchase program. This end to the COVID-19 monetary stimulus program is designed to fight the strong increase in inflation trends that was present in the second half of 2021 and continues into this year.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 2/7/22; YTD Return S&P 500; 4,509; -3.22% Dow Jones Industrials; 35,174; -5.38% Nasdaq Composite; 14,150; -9.72% Shanghai Composite (China); 3,429; -5.77% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 57,621; -1.09% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 27,248; -5.36% CAC 40 (France); 7,015; -2.55% DAX (Germany); 15,236; -4.05% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,582; 2.16%
Selected Interest Rates; 2/7/22; Prior Period 15-Year Mortgage; 2.77%; 2.34% 30-Year Mortgage; 3.55%; 3.12% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.78%; 1.19% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 1.93%; 1.44% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.23%; 1.87%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Prior; Recent Period National Producer Price Index; 0.20%; 0.80% Consumer Price Index; 0.50%; 0.80% Unemployment Rate; 4.00%; 4.60% ISM Manufacturing Index; 57.60; 58.70 ISM Services Index; 59.90; 62.00 Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 467,000; 210,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ,CT; -0.20%; 0.30% Unemployment Rate; 6.20%; 6.60% Empire State Manufacturing Survey; -0.70%; 31.90%

Inflation, Annualized Change in CPI

The most important economic data point right now is the rate of inflation. As prices have moved higher, there are growing concerns about systemic inflation arising out of the tight labor market and continuing problems in the supply chain. For example, Ford Motor announced that it is shuttering a production facility due to the shortage of computer chips. Supply shortages and rising wages make for a potent inflation formula.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month Dow Jones Industrials; 2/7/22; 11/17/21 Dividend Yield; 1.87%; 1.89% Price/Earnings (12-Mth Trailing); 20.67; 20.82 Price/Earnings (Projected); 19.42; 17.84 S&P 500 Index; 2/7/22; 11/17/21 Dividend Yield; 1.38%; 1.35% Price/Earnings (12-Mth Trailing); 24.58; 27.07 Price/Earnings (Projected); 20.34; 21.45

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to [email protected], or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.