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Columns, March/April 2022 |
June 2022

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Forté Capital’s Selected Statistics

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

The yield curve has settled back into a normal shape, having been inverted from the 2-year to the 10-year at the beginning of April. This transitory recession signal is a reminder that as the Federal Reserve increases rates in order to fight inflation, the odds of recession increase. Should inflation remain high, the Federal Reserve might be forced to go beyond its current plan to raise interest rates six more times this year.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 4/12/22; YTD Return S&P 500; 4,444; -6.75% Dow Jones Industrials; 34,567; -4.87% Nasdaq Composite; 13,637; -12.83% Shanghai Composite (China); 3,186; -12.44% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 359,338; 0.15% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 26,843; -6.77% CAC 40 (France); 6,542; -8.54% DAX (Germany); 14,076; -11.38% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,580; 2.66%
Selected Interest Rates; 4/12/22; Prior Period 15-Year Mortgage; 3.91%; 2.77% 30-Year Mortgage; 4.72%; 3.55% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 2.66%; 1.78% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 2.70%; 1.93% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.81%; 2.23%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Period National Producer Price Index; 1.40%; 0.80% Consumer Price Index; 1.20%; 0.80% Unemployment Rate; 3.60%; 4.00% ISM Manufacturing Index; 57.10; 58.60 ISM Services Index; 58.30; 56.50 Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 431,000; 678,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 1.30%; 0.30% Unemployment Rate; 4.90%; 5.30% Empire State Manufacturing Survey; -11.80%; 3.20%

Annualized Inflation, April vs. January

The COVID-19 induced monetary easing, combined with enormous federal government spending, have contributed to the inflationary pressures now so evident in the U.S. economy. This flood of liquidity, when combined with supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine, and higher energy prices, will make the Federal Reserve’s efforts in fighting inflation more difficult.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Period Dow Jones Industrials; 4/12/22; 2/4/22 Dividend Yield; 1.93%; 1.87% Price/Earnings (12-Mth Trailing); 18.90; 20.67 Price/Earnings (Projected); 18.27; 19.42 S&P 500 Index; 4/12/22; 2/4/22 Dividend Yield; 1.41%; 1.38% Price/Earnings (12-Mth Trailing); 24.09; 24.58 Price/Earnings (Projected); 19.55; 20.34

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.

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