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Columns, May/June 2022 |
August 2022

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Forté Capital’s Selected Statistics

U.S. New Home Sales

The recent rise in mortgage rates has cooled the sales of new homes. The rush to close before rate locks expire has given way to the reality that many buyers who were well qualified at 3% may not be able to afford the same house at roughly double the rate of interest. With inflation running at 40-year highs and the Federal Reserve aggres sively raising short term interest rates, real estate is now a source of economic weakness.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 6/21/22; YTD Return S&P 500; 3,776; -20.73% Dow Jones Industrials; 30,626; -15.72% Nasdaq Composite; 11,112; -28.97% Shanghai Composite (China); 3,306; -9.15% S&P BSE Sensex (India); 52,799; 9.82% Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 26,246; -8.84% CAC 40 (France); 5,964; -16.61% DAX (Germany); 13,292; -16.32% FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,152; 3.15%
Selected Interest Rates; 6/21/22; Prior Period 15-Year Mortgage; 4.81%; 3.91% 30-Year Mortgage; 5.78%; 4.72% 5-Year Treasury Bond; 3.34%; 2.66% 10-Year Treasury Bond; 3.25%; 2.70% 30-Year Treasury Bond; 3.30%; 2.81%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Period National Producer Price Index; 0.80%; 0.50% Consumer Price Index; 1.00%; 0.30% Unemployment Rate; 3.60%; 3.60% ISM Manufacturing Index; 56.10; 55.40 ISM Services Index; 55.90; 57.10 Change in Non-farm Payroll Emp.; 390,000; 428,000 New York State Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.50%; 0.90% Unemployment Rate; 4.40%; 4.50% Empire State Manufacturing Survey; -1.20%; -11.20%

Annualized Quarterly Real U.S. GDP Growth

The probability of recession in the next 12 months has increased in recent months due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, continuing supply-chain problems, and high energy prices. The first quarter decline resulted from inventory and trade deficit adjustments; therefore, a rebound is expected in the second quarter. Nonetheless, the headwinds for future growth are very strong right now.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Period Dow Jones Industrials; 6/21/22; 4/15/22 Dividend Yield; 2.05%; 1.93% Price/Earnings (12-Mth Trailing); 18.45; 18.90 Price/Earnings (Projected); 17.42; 18.27 S&P 500 Index; 6/21/22; 4/15/22 Dividend Yield; 1.56%; 1.41% Price/Earnings (12-Mth Trailing); 24.09; 24.09 Price/Earnings (Projected); 17.73; 19.55

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit www.fortecapital.com, send a message to info@forte-capital.com, or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.

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