U.S. Treasury Yield Curve The financial turmoil caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic extended into the bond market, as investors drove yields down and raised…
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve The U.S. Treasury yield curve is inverted from 30 days to 3 years, reflecting the fear of an economic slowdown due…
Non-farm payroll The U.S. economy continues its modest growth trajectory, with non-farm payroll growing by 195,000 per month on average. The overall labor market remains…
Industrial Production Index Industrial production improved in the latest report, due largely to better output of automobiles and parts following the settlement of the GM…
ISM Manufacturing Index The latest ISM data point confirms a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. While GDP grew by 2.1% in the third quarter, manufacturing…
Non-farm Payroll The U.S. labor market has remained tight. There are more jobs available than applicants; in particular, skilled labor positions remain unfilled in some…
Treasury Yield Curve The yield curve has inverted; that is, short-term interest rates are now higher than longer-term rates. This phenomenon can indicate the potential…
ISM Manufacturing Index The manufacturing sector is slowing, especially the export sectors. According to the ISM survey of purchasing managers, there is concern over the…
Quarterly Real U.S. GDP Growth Estimates for 2019 gross domestic product are coming down; while the first quarter ended with a 3.1% growth rate, evidence…
ISM Manufacturing Index There are further signs of a slowing economy in 2019. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, while still above 50%,…
U.S. Wages and Salaries Growth Wages grew by 4.16% during January 2019 versus the same period in 2018. According to Trading Economics, this is below the long-term…
ISM Manufacturing PMI The most recent ISM Manufacturing Index increased 2.3% from December 2018, indicating expanding business strength fostered by stronger demand and output. The…
Effective Federal Funds Rate, 1954–2018 Much of the anxiety seen in the stock markets in the fourth quarter of 2018 was the result of aggressive…
Wages Real wages—that is, wages adjusted for inflation—have resumed rising after a dip in 2016. This trend reflects tight labor market conditions and increased inflationary…
Quarterly U.S. GDP Growth Providing a counterpoint to the ISM data, second-quarter U.S. GDP was revised up from 4.1% to 4.2%, which was slightly better…
U.S. Unemployment Rate Unemployment trends remain strong, as indicated above. The most recent unemployment rate was 3.9%, with 164,000 new jobs recorded in the most…
U.S. Unemployment Rate The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 4.1% for the sixth straight month. More robust economic growth, due in part to the federal…
GDP Fourth quarter U.S. GDP was revised up to 2.9%, completing a year that saw GDP grow at 2.3%. While the first quarter of 2018…
Treasury Yield Curve Markets are looking to new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for signals about the direction of interest rates. Expectations for three more…
GDP Fourth quarter GDP grew at annualized rate of 2.6%, down from the previous quarter's rate of 3.2% growth. The change resulted from a downturn…
Forté Capital’s Selected Statistics – Part 2
Consumer Price Index
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3% in March, following a 0.1% gain in February, and it is up 3.1% annualized.…
Vehicle Sales Vehicle sales increased in October from 17.8 million to 18.3 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This represents just under a…