Treasury Yield Curve

The yield curve has inverted; that is, short-term interest rates are now higher than longer-term rates. This phenomenon can indicate the potential for a recession. While there is no cause-and-effect-relationship, the mere presence of an inversion can have an impact on capital expenditures and business hiring.

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U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 8/27/19; YTD Return
S&P 500; 2,878; 14.81%
Dow Jones Industrials; 25,895; 11.01%
Nasdaq Composite; 7,844; 18.23%
Shanghai Composite (China); 2,902; 16.37%
S&P BSE Sensex (India); 37,641; 4.36%
Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 20,456; 2.20%
CAC 40 (France); 5,387; 13.89%
DAX (Germany); 11,730; 11.09%
FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,087; 5.34%
Selected Interest Rates; 8/27/19; 7/28/19
15-Year Mortgage; 3.03%; 3.20%
30-Year Mortgage; 3.55%; 3.75%
5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.43%; 1.68%
10-Year Treasury Bond; 1.54%; 1.90%
30-Year Treasury Bond; 1.04%; 2.44%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Producer Price Index; 0.20%; 0.10%
Consumer Price Index; 0.30%; 0.10%
Unemployment Rate; 3.70%; 3.70%
ISM Manufacturing Index; 49.10; 51.20
ISM Services Index; 53.70; 55.10
Change in Non-Farm Payroll Emp.; 164,000; 193,000(rev.)
New York State
Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.00%; 0.30%
Unemployment Rate; 4.00%; 4.00%
Empire State Manufacturing Survey; 4.80%; 4.30%

ISM Manufacturing Index

The September ISM Manufacturing Index came in below expectations at 49.1%, indicating a slight contraction in the industrial sector. This data takes on increased significance due to its downward trend since January and in light of trade tensions with China. A report below 50% indicates a contraction in the industrial sector, increasing the risk that a recession is more likely.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Dow Jones Industrials; 8/27/19; 7/28/19
Dividend Yield; 2.42%; 2.40%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 18.43; 17.62
Price/Earnings (Projected); 17.62; 16.67
S&P 500 Index; 8/27/19; 7/28/19
Dividend Yield; 1.98%; 1.98%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 21.09; 21.09
Price/Earnings (Projected); 17.38; 16.95

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit, send a message to, or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.