Non-farm Payroll

The U.S. labor market has remained tight. There are more jobs available than applicants; in particular, skilled labor positions remain unfilled in some markets. The recent strike at General Motors plants may be another indicator of increasing pricing power for labor unions. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, median wages rose by 3.7% year over year, with CPI at 1.8% for the same period.

U.S. & World Equity Indexes; 9/28/19; YTD Return
S&P 500; 2,961; 18.15%
Dow Jones Industrials; 26,820; 14.97%
Nasdaq Composite; 7,939; 19.66%
Shanghai Composite (China); 2,939; 17.57%
S&P BSE Sensex (India); 38,822; 7.64%
Nikkei Stock Avg (Japan); 21,878; 9.31%
CAC 40 (France); 5,640; 19.23%
DAX (Germany); 12,380; 17.26%
FTSE 100 (U.K.); 7,426; 10.40%
Selected Interest Rates; 9/28/19; 8/28/19
15-Year Mortgage; 3.16%; 3.03%
30-Year Mortgage; 3.64%; 3.55%
5-Year Treasury Bond; 1.56%; 1.43%
10-Year Treasury Bond; 1.69%; 1.54%
30-Year Treasury Bond; 2.13%; 1.94%
Key Economic Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Producer Price Index; 0.10%; 0.20%
Consumer Price Index; 0.10%; 0.30%
Unemployment Rate; 3.70%; 3.70%
ISM Manufacturing Index; 51.20; 49.10
ISM Services Index; 56.40; 53.70
Change in Non-farm Payroll Emp.; 130,000; 164,000
New York State
Consumer Price Index - NY, NJ, CT; 0.20%; 0.00%
Unemployment Rate; 4.00%; 4.00%
Empire State Manufacturing Survey; 2.00%; 4.80%

ISM Manufacturing Index

The trend in industrial activity rose last month above the 50% level that broadly demarcates contraction from expansion in the sector. As has been the case for the last 12 months, U.S.–China trade issues have cast a pall of uncertainty on capital goods manufactures, as well as hard goods that could be impacted by higher tariffs. The outcome of trade negotiations is uncertain and difficult to predict.

Equity Market Statistics; Most Recent; Prior Month
Dow Jones Industrials; 9/28/19; 8/28/19
Dividend Yield; 2.47%; 2.42%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 18.48; 18.43
Price/Earnings (Projected); 17.63; 17.62
S&P 500 Index; 9/28/19; 8/28/19
Dividend Yield; 2.01%; 1.98%
Price/Earnings (12 Mth Trailing); 21.09; 21.09
Price/Earnings (Projected); 17.19; 17.38

The information herein was obtained from various sources believed to be accurate; however, Forté Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report was prepared for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities, options, or futures contracts. Forté Capital’s Proprietary Market Risk Barometer is a summary of 30 indicators and is copyrighted by Forté Capital LLC. For further information, visit, send a message to, or call 866-586-8100 and ask for David W. Henion, CPA, or Larry H. Rabinowitz, CPA/PFS.